Fifth Anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Thorough Understanding Helps Push Forward Steadily

 "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University

On August 27, 2018, at the symposium marking the fifth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping pointed out that as an international cooperation initiative attracting widespread attention, the Belt and Road Initiative has seen unexpected achievements in the past five years and has embarked on a new stage of steadily pushing forward. However, further efforts are needed to deepen and materialize Five Connectivity cooperation. As the basic cooperative framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, Five Connectivity refers to the practical cooperation between China and countries concerned in the following areas, namely, policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people bond.

The "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University releasesThe Belt and Road Initiative: Report on Five Connectivity Indexes every year in order to assess the development of the Belt and Road Initiative with quantitative data, to determine the development potential of the B&R Initiative with an comprehensive assessment report, to optimize the development direction of the B&R Initiative with concrete policy recommendations, and to provide an thorough understanding for those engaged in research, decision-making and execution of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Today, at Taihe Civilizations Forum, the "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University makes the world premier ofThe Belt and Road Initiative: 2018 Report on Five Connectivity Indexes, which measures the overall level of development of 94 nations related to the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017. The findings are as follows. First, the overall linkage of Five Connectivity is conspicuous, reaching to the level of "Good Cooperation", which shows that generally the B&R Initiative construction is marching positively and that there is significant room for improvement. Second, the differentiation in the development of the Five Connectivity areas is significant, with the development of impeded trade ranking the first, the development of facilities connectivity the last, and the development of people-to-people bond, policy coordination and financial integration ranking in between. At the national level, the differentiation in the development of the Five Connectivity areas is also significant, and those nations show huge differences in Five Connectivity development. And third, the distribution chart of Five Connectivity level of those nations with China resembles the shape of a spindle, that is, the number of nations with extremely high and extremely low scores are small, and most nations are at a medium level. To be specific, a total of eleven nations reach the highest level of cooperation (i.e., smooth cooperation nations), namely, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Germany, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Mongolia, New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia. Russia, Singapore and Malaysia have been the top 3 for several years. With four nations included in smooth cooperation nations, Southeast Asia ranks the first in all regions in terms of smooth cooperation nations ratio. Developed nations of Europe and Oceania are marching fast in the ranking list. As the places of origination of the Belt and the Road respectively, Kazakhstan and Indonesia are performing stably. Some nations are making significant progress, which shows that the Belt and Road construction has really enhanced the inter-connectivity between China and related nations.

The Belt and Road Initiative: 2018 Report on Five Connectivity Indexes is a joint achievement by the "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University and Taihe Institute, with third-party support from United Nations Industrial Development Organization International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer. The leaders of the "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University are Professor Wang Jimin and Professor Zhai Kun from Peking University, and the deputy leader is Doctor Chen Yiyuan from Peking University. Special thanks are given to Mr. Peng Binge from Taihe Institute and Ms. Lin Ziwei from United Nations Industrial Development Organization International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer. The research group hope that, with the support of Taihe Institute, we can make the B&R Five Connectivity Indexes report into a more international, more professional and more dynamic public knowledge product which is authoritative and therefore can serve multiple stakeholders of the Belt and Road Initiative in a better way.

Body:

In the past five years, the number of nations and regions engaged in cooperation of the Belt and Road has been increasing, and the cooperation in Five Connectivity has been deepened and materialized. Based on changes of the real world, the research group expands the scope of measurement this year, optimizes the indicator system, and improves the methods of measurement. Based on the results of measurement, the research group classifies the inter-connectivity of Five Connectivity between China and 94 nations into five levels, namely, "smooth cooperation nations" (scoring 70 and above), "interconnected nations" (scoring 60 to 70), "good cooperation nations" (scoring 50 to 60), "nations of potential for cooperation" (scoring 40 to 50), and "nations of weak cooperation" (scoring below 40). generally speaking, the average score of connectivity of those countries with China is 55.25, reaching to the level of "good cooperation", which shows that shows that overall the B&R Initiative construction is marching positively and that there is significant room for improvement.

The distribution of Five Connectivity indexes of those nations with China clearly takes the shape of normal distribution (that is, small ends and big middle). In other words, the number of nations with extremely high and extremely low scores are small, and most nations are at a medium level. A total of eleven nations are included in smooth cooperation nations, namely, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Germany, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Mongolia, New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia.

Figure 1: Distribution chart of five categories of nations

Findings of the measurement:

1. Features of different areas

First, the levels of development in various "Connectivity" are quite different, and the differences of various nations are more conspicuous. In terms of level of overall development, the scores of impeded trade and people-to-people bond are relatively, reaching 12.36 and 12.34 respectively, while the scores of the other three indexes are all below 10. This shows that there are huge differences in the Five Connectivity areas. In terms of national dispersion degrees, the nations differs most significantly in the level of capital integration with the variance at 16.62, which shows that the nations differs greatly in the level of connectivity in financial areas. The dispersion degrees in the areas of policy coordination and people-to-people bond are at a medium level with the variance at nearly 10. And the dispersion degrees in the areas of impeded trade and facilities connectivity are relatively low. From this we can see that the differentiation in development of the B&R construction is becoming more and more conspicuous in terms of both the Five Connectivity areas and nations.

Figure 2: Comparison of means and variances of Tier I indicators

And second, the relevance among Five Connectivity indexes is conspicuous. People-to-people bond, financial integration and impeded trade are closely related to each other, while facilities connectivity is an index with low relevance to Five Connectivity links and policy coordination and impeded trade.

2. Features of the nations

Based on the scores of the 94 nations in Five Connectivity, the research report classifies those nations into eight categories, namely, nations of generally smooth cooperation, nations with great potential, nations with huge strength in a single area, nations of equal potential in all areas, nations of financial weakness, nation of facilities weakness, nation of policy weakness, and nations to be strengthened in cooperation.

Table 1: Analysis of nations in groups

Five Connectivity Indexes of Nations along the B&R in 2018

I. Indicator system

The indicator system of Five Connectivity Indexes of Nations along the B&R in 2018 includes five Tier I indicators, fifteen Tier II indicators and forty-five Tier III indicators, as illustrated in Table 2.

Table 2: Indicator system of Five Connectivity Indexes (2018)

II. Results of measurement (see Table 3)

Table 3: Rankings and Scores of Nations along the Belt and Road in terms of Five Connectivity